Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Report (New & Improved!)

Below is a spreadsheet of the latest statistics for the Real Estate Market in Northern Virginia.  A lot has changed (hopefully improved!) this month so take a close look at the spreadsheet.  A few of the changes:

  • Different Jurisdictions are on separate tabs of the same spreadsheet.  As always I have stats for Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church City, Fairfax City, and Fairfax County) and Fairfax separately.  But now you have to click on the City of Fairfax tab under the charts to get those stats.  During the next couple of weeks I will be adding some different jurisdictions on different tabs, so come back and check this post.  I’ll be adding Prince William County first.
  • Charts:  At the bottom of the spreadsheet.
  • Average Prices:  I have been reluctant to give this in the past because it’s so easy to misinterpret.  Let me just  say month to month prices in jurisdictions with a small number of sales mean very little.  Changes over large chunks of time affecting a large number of houses are much more significant.  For example, it’s very significant that prices in the Northern Virginia have gone down and stayed down over the last year.  The tank in Fairfax City prices from February to March 2008 isn’t significant.  It’s a statistical anomaly because the bucket of properties sold those two months changed significantly.
  • Highlighting the current month:  I hope you will go back and compare last month’s numbers to the same month in years past.  Real Estate is seasonal.
I am continuing to try to make these stats more useful to you.  Let me know if you have any suggestions or would like to see a different type on information or have the information sliced a different way.


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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA,  703-585-5663

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  • It looks as if Fx county took a big hit in selling price when you see November from this year compared to the previous Novembers

    Not sure what it is telling me when I go back Apr 08 and try to forecast what the prices will be in Apr 09 when I am putting my house on the market.

    I am guessing I can expect the averages to be down as much as $40,000 if I compare it Dec 07 to Apr 08.
    Who knows? We’ll see.

  • Jeff Royce

    Randy…you point to a major problem with “average price.” It doesn’t mean that a particular house goes down by that amount. There are two problems with that:

    1) Real Estate is very local. What happens in your neighborhood is different than, though surely influenced by what happens in Northern Virginia as a whole.

    2) The basket of homes that sells each month changes. If you are looking at a particular area with all different kinds of homes you might see one month where an expensive builder has a big sale and sells off lots of inventory. That will up the averages, but not necessarily affect the value of the other houses in that area. We just aren’t sure what is selling each month that skews the average. Be leery of those numbers and look at your immediate competition with much greater care.